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Scenario-Based Planning(SBP)
Multi-scenario planning that prepares for different possible futures and uncertain conditions
In 30 seconds
- What
- Models multiple possible futures with assigned probabilities, then develops strategies robust across scenarios rather than optimized for one.
- When to use
- Planning under high uncertainty where outcomes depend on uncontrollable factors like market conditions, competition, or regulatory changes.
- Watch out
- Scenario probabilities are guesses; plans optimized for unlikely scenarios waste resources while neglecting preparation for probable ones.
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Scenario-Based Planning: Overview
Multi-scenario planning that prepares for different possible futures and uncertain conditions
- Multiple scenario modeling
- Uncertainty quantification
- Robust strategy development
- Contingency planning
- Risk assessment
- Adaptive decision-making
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References
The papers, specifications, and repositories this pattern is based on.
- Schoemaker (1995): Scenario Planning - A Tool for Strategic Thinking
- Wack (1985): Scenarios - Uncharted Waters Ahead
- Bradfield et al.: Evolution of scenario planning (review)
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